Moody's e eurobonds.

O artigo de Wolfgang Münchau no FT de hoje (Don’t blame Moody’s for a messy euro crisis) merece ser lido na íntegra. No centro do argumento, uma questão que já tenho referido aqui repetidas vezes: não há solução para a crise da dívida na zona euro sem emissão de eurobonds. Destaque (negritos meus):

Everybody hates the rating agencies and no one hates them more than the Europeans. The rating agencies were, without a doubt, an important contributing factor to the credit bubble. But last week, they did us a favour. They showed that populism will not work. The European Central Bank is absolutely right on this. A Greek default will unleash a dynamic process that will threaten the eurozone’s financial stability, even its very survival.

The impasse leaves us with a single solution in the short run – and a single solution in the long run. The two are, in fact, the same. In the short run, the only way to bring the private sector into a voluntary scheme is a debt swap, to be organised by the European financial stability facility. That is currently not possible because the EFSF is not allowed to purchase bonds in secondary markets. Germany, in particular would have to change its position on this issue. But the Germans are among those who are pushing the hardest for private-sector participation. I would not be surprised if they changed their mind again – as they have been doing time and again in the past 18 months.

If the rules on the EFSF were relaxed, it could offer to buy up Greek debt at a discount, say 20 per cent, in exchange for its own AAA-rated bonds. The sellers would have to register a loss, but at least they end up with good securities. There would be no reason for the rating agencies to act.

In the long run, the only solution is a eurozone bond, which you can think of as an extended secondary-market purchase programme by the EFSF. This is why the short-term and long-term solutions are identical. Of course, it will not be called a eurozone bond. The Germans had a wonderful euphemism to describe the debt they raised to pay for unification: Sondervermögen, or “special wealth”. The EU will come up with a similarly misleading name. Let us not kid ourselves however: a eurozone bond it will be.